{"id":54466,"date":"2019-07-23T09:05:58","date_gmt":"2019-07-23T08:05:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/valuesque.com\/?p=54466"},"modified":"2019-07-23T10:35:06","modified_gmt":"2019-07-23T09:35:06","slug":"how-to-sell-the-same-product-several-times-the-customer-as-a-partner-financial-analysis-problem-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/valuesque.com\/en\/blog\/2019\/07\/23\/how-to-sell-the-same-product-several-times-the-customer-as-a-partner-financial-analysis-problem-1\/","title":{"rendered":"How to sell the same product several times? \u2013 The Customer-as-a-Partner Financial Analysis Problem (1)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

What can companies do if the end-customer market is simply too small for their ambitious revenue goals? They can simply create a new parallel-market. Sounds impossible? It is not! And it has already been applied (or at least tried to) a couple of times in practice\u2026 Let\u2019s explain this technique with a simple (and simplified) example. Imagine a company can sell just one product each year into the end-customer market. There is no more market potential. In a normal environment, the company would record the sales for this one product every period. So far, so clear! <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Now imagine that the company is looking for other \u201ccustomers\u201d, e.g. a reseller or distribution company. It is important that this distribution company is not related to the company (at least from the point of view of auditors) because otherwise a sale of products to this distributor would not exit the scope of consolidation of the company and hence would not show up as external revenues. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So now the\ncompany can already record two product sales in this period! But so far this\nonly seems to be a slight gain of timing because the end-customer market will\nstill be buying only one product in the next period and hence someone \u2013 the\ncompany or the distributor \u2013 has to suffer next period by not being able to\nsell its product into the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How to deal\nwith this problem? In a next step the company takes out the oversupply by\nsimply taking the distributor from the market: by way of M&A! The company\nsimply acquires the distributor at the beginning of the second period. If we\nassume here that the distributor has nothing else than the one product from the\nlast period on stock and no other activities, the acquisition price is just the\nprice for the product.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, the company now sells one product (perhaps the one which is sitting in the distributor\u2019s balance sheet because he could not sell it in the first period) to the end-customer. And it sells two products to two other distributors (or two to one other distributor). Now the sales count in the second period is already 3. This increasing revenues are generated at the cost of having to finance this weird transaction somehow \u2013 remember you need the cash for acquiring distributor 1. Usually the company has to issue fresh debt for this. Take care: Here one product is already sold twice \u2013 first to distributor 1, then reintegrated via M&A, and the sold to another distributor or the end-customer!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In the third period the company sells one product to the end customer and sells three more products to three other distribution companies (or one other distribution company, the structure here is just chosen for the sake of clarity). And of course it acquires the two distribution companies it sold products to in period 2. Sales count in this period: 4! Financed with debt. And so on. By the way, here are already two products sold twice (or one product sold thrice)! You see where it is going? It is simply a trade-off of increasing revenues by the cost of acquisitions. The company can generate market demand by buying back this demand later. Remember, this is still a market where there is only demand for one product per period by end-customers!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we have a look at the balance sheet of the company, we can see that the leverage is growing over time. This is not a surprise. Effectively, the company has to take on new debt every period amounting to the additional revenues that it generates. If we start with a company that has two products on stock (50 Euros each) and a corresponding equity position of 100 Euros and we assume here for simplicity that it sells the products at a margin of zero (one to the end-customer, one to distributor 1), it needs fresh debt amounting to 50 Euros in the second period in order to produce a third product and sell it to distributor 2 or 3. This is how the debt \/ Enterprise Value relation develops over time: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It is a\nfantastic Ponzi-Scheme that is build up here. And the question is only: How\nlong can the company do it. In order to perform this scheme within the rules of\nIFRS you particularly need two assumptions which are met in practice at a\ndifferent degree of probability:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  • The company needs several innocent enough,\nindependent (!) distribution companies which perhaps do not oversee the real\nend-customer market potential.<\/li>
  • The company needs banks that are not\nable to not oversee the real end-customer market potential and hand out loans\nfor the acquisition spree of the company.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    From\nexperience we can see that the first assumption is really a problem (sorry, a\nproblem for the dishonest CFO, of course) in practice \u2013 in particular if\ncompanies want to play this game big. For bigger scopes of this scheme\ncompanies usually do not find independent distributors. But if companies do not\nplay this game in such an exaggerated manner, if they only oversupply the\nmarket a bit, then the sometimes find at least some (or one) distribution\ncompanies. If not, then we are leaving he scope of GAAP. Then the field of\naccounting fraud begins. In this case companies \u201cconstruct\u201d the distributors\nthemselves but pretend that they are independent \u2013 e.g. with no capital\nparticipation but perhaps with some interpersonal ties (where some employees of\nthe company are founding the distribution company or similar). Fraud! But\ndifficult to spot for some time if well hidden from the outside perspective and\nfrom auditors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The second\nassumption is in most practical cases rather not a general problem but rather a\nproblem of continuous application. If the company has some other activities and\ncan back loans with these activities or if the company can even finance some of\nthe M&A activities with equity or simply if the company uses its\ninformation advantage over banks to pretend a growing end-customer market: at\nleast for a couple of periods companies might find financing for this\ntechnique. And this is often enough to greatly benefit from this scheme. So the\nexample in the graph above with 10 periods of game playing is perhaps too much,\nbut why not for 2,3 or 4 periods?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Just to\nmake clear what this scheme means for other performance measures of the company:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    • Earnings: This one is trickier to\nmanipulate. In the example above we assumed for reasons of simplicity a\nzero-margin. This will not be the case in reality. But if you follow the logic\nof the example in more practical terms, the company will realise positive\nmargins \u2013 at least for the sales to end-customers. However, the sales to the\ndistributor will be neutral as long as these products do not go to the end-customers\n(which will eventually be the case for products that are sold several times).\nThey will be neutral because the company reintegrates these products via\nM&A now at the higher value (already including the sell-in margin). But \u2013\nno worries for dishonest CFOs \u2013 there are also ways of how to bring these\nmargins up. One possibility is to depreciate product values in the course of\nthe purchase price allocation following the acquisition (often done) with the\ndifference now increasing the goodwill position. Another possibility is to\nincrease the margins of sell-ins over time (this is rather possible if the\ncompany already controls the distributors beforehand). Or a mixture of both.\nUsually M&A accounting allows some discretion to management to also make\nthe earnings benefit from this scheme.<\/li>
    • Cash flows: Net cash flows are not\nincreasing here. How should they? Ok, admittedly, the will be impacted slightly\nby a bit of timing issues but not more. But due to the split of the\ntransactions into an operating part (selling products) and an investing part\n(reintegration via M&A) the split into the partial cash flows will be\nimpacted a lot. Operating cash flow will look good and growing while investing\ncash flow will be deeply negative. As long as investors see some positives in\nthe M&A activity of the company \u2013 because they here falsely hope for future\nreturns to these investments \u2013 they will not weigh negatively the negative\ninvesting cash flow as strong as they weigh the positives of the positive\noperating cash flow.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      So, you\ndon\u2019t believe that companies play these games? Here are examples:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The most\nstriking one is Valeant Pharmaceuticals International. The company \u2013 which\nmeanwhile after a couple of accounting and business scandals renamed itself\ninto Bausch Health \u2013 understood the functioning of the above revenue inflation\ntechnique very well. The company had a distribution company named Philidor which\nwas originally set-up or at least supported by Valeant employees. As these\nemployees knew that this interpersonal connection might be a bit problematic\nthey didn\u2019t use their real names but some more or less creative fake names such\nas \u201cPeter Parker\u201d (Spiderman) or \u201cBrian Wilson\u201d (the creative head of the\n\u201cBeach Boys\u201d). Before Valeant acquired Philidor (transaction clarity has come\nin December 2014 when they bought an option to acquire Philidor for zero USD)\nthe company sold products to Philidor and recognised them as sales. After this\ndate they (now rightly) consolidated Philidor and by this move reintegrated the\nrevenues and were able to recognise them again. However, due to too many\nirregularities in the whole company setting, Valeant soon was in the middle of\npublic accusations and investigations. These investigations also revealed their\nrevenue double-counting trick. So Valeant eventually did not manage to set up a\ngrowing scheme of distribution company selling-and-reintegrating because they\nwere caught before. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      But as\nalready mentioned, there is also the soft version of this game. In this case\nthe distributor is independent at first and just doing normal business \u2013 and\nmarkets are usually not one-product markets \u2013 and gets caught by the\nacquisition by surprise (or at least without any long-term plan in place). In these\ncases companies benefit in revenue-terms from acquisitions of distributors mostly\n\u201cen passant\u201d. This means there are clear business logics to buy the distributor\nto which the companies have sold products beforehand \u2013 e.g. in order to\nestablish a local distribution hub in a foreign country \u2013 but companies also\nbenefit from the reintegration-based sales boost. It is important to note that\nthere were no accounting-relevant relations before the transactions, so here\neverything takes place within the allowed scope of GAAP \u2013 and without any bad\nintentions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Spectris\nPlc., a producer of specialised measurement instruments and controls, did it a couple\nof times e.g. in Taiwan, South-Korea, Japan and China. Brazilian Foods SA\nbought one of its suppliers (2,500 employees) in the United Arab Emirates in\n2015. In 2017, Japan Tobacco just integrated a whole value-chain by buying a\nproducer PT Karyandibya Mahardhika and its distributor, PT Surya Mustika\nNusantara in Indonesia in one go. In 2016, NuVasive Inc, a US-based medical\ndevices company, bought one of its distributor in Brazil, and so on. These are\njust a couple of examples. And again, as far as we know they did these\ntransactions for good economic reasons \u2013 but they also somehow benefited in\nterms of the revenue effect: en passant. And of course there are also some\nsuspect-companies out there which don\u2019t do it with good intentions (at least\nthis is what I think) but I cannot uncover them here because their proceeding\nis still ongoing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      For\nanalysts this customer-as-a-partner variant is a tricky situation as in most\ncases a clear adjustment of sales is not possible. But a rough adjustment is\nalways better than none. In particular, analysts should look at the following\npoints:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      • Always be ready for revenue (and\ncash flow and \u2013 perhaps \u2013 earnings) adjustments if a company buys a distributor\nor reseller<\/li>
      • Try to find out what the sales to\nthe distributor are before the transactions. Take into account the shelf-life\nof the inventories. In food it is rather low, in some industrial products it\ncan be high (the high shelf-life products are more probable to be sold twice)<\/li>
      • Try to find out what the margins of\na) sales to the distributor and b) sales to the end-customer are. Make\nadjustments to your forecasts.<\/li>
      • Check the notes regarding the\npurchase price allocation after the acquisition. Are there any value\nadjustments to inventory (a depreciation would allow to not only increase sales\nbut also to stabilize or even increase the margins of these future sales)<\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        What can companies do if the end-customer market is simply too small for their ambitious revenue goals? 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