{"id":54458,"date":"2019-07-17T07:59:45","date_gmt":"2019-07-17T06:59:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/valuesque.com\/?p=54458"},"modified":"2019-07-17T11:50:21","modified_gmt":"2019-07-17T10:50:21","slug":"can-tongaat-turn-sugar-into-gold-the-ias-41-biological-assets-financial-analysis-problem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/valuesque.com\/en\/blog\/2019\/07\/17\/can-tongaat-turn-sugar-into-gold-the-ias-41-biological-assets-financial-analysis-problem\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Tongaat turn Sugar into Gold? The IAS 41 Biological Assets Financial Analysis Problem"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

While\nTongaat Hulett LTD was standing close to the top of our accounting watch-list\nfor a long time (and we were scratching our heads about a lot of things), recent\ndevelopments led us to give an answer to the question raised in the headline now\nvery clearly: No, they can\u2019t! And they can\u2019t turn land into gold, neither. How\ndo we know? Just a couple of weeks ago it became public that Tongaat Hulett\nLTD, a South-African agricultural conglomerate mainly focussing on sugar\nproduction and property business, is accused of severe misstatements of\naccounting numbers over many years. Bad news for investors in the company, good\nnews for the short-sellers!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And there\nare obviously a couple of different accounting irregularities with Tongaat\nHulett: The biggest one was certainly the overstatement of revenues from land\nsales, but the company was also downplaying and misunderstanding the negative\naspects of cash being trapped in Zimbabwe (see the article on the different\nnatures of cash here: https:\/\/valuesque.com\/telias-net-debt-ebitda-communication-the-restricted-cash-financial-analysis-problem\/<\/a>) and \u2013 the point of interest in\nthis article today \u2013 it presumably misstated the value of its main assets: the\ncane roots and the standing cane. The latter directly resulted in an earnings\noverstatement as these fair value changes have been flowing through the profit\n& loss statement over the years. To be fair: This aspect is not publicly\nconfirmed yet, so we still stay in a state of analysis \u2013 and of course we might\nbe wrong with our analysis \u2013 but looking at the numbers there are strong indications\nfrom an analytical point of view. And it is a quite interesting and delicate aspect\nof IFRS-accounting that is touched here. So this is worth having a closer look\nat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s start\nwith some technical background first: IAS 41 Agriculture<\/em> covers the accounting of so called biological assets.\nThese are assets that are somehow in a living state and are to be sold at a\nlater point in time. This could be animals (like salmons in a salmon farm) or\nliving plant (like typical agricultural assets). The standard generally\nrequires such assets to be measured at fair value less costs to sell. Obviously\nthe fair value of these assets changes over time \u2013 with the planned growth of\nanimals or plants \u2013 but of course also related to some other aspects such as\nweather accidents or diseases or similar. The very interesting point is now:\nthe periodical changes of these fair values flow directly through the profit\n& loss account [IAS 41.26].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While from\na theoretical point of view largely sound (because the usual\nlower-of-cost-or-market principle for \u201cinventories\u201d does not make a lot of\nsense for naturally growing assets) this rule is a very fragile one as it\nobviously allows companies to recognise revenues long before they are earned in\na market, i.e. before products are sold to customers (so called paper profits).\nBut as long as the fair value can be determined with a reasonably high degree\nof confidence \u2013 e.g. when there is a market price for it \u2013 the proximity of\nfair value to an hypothetical selling price seems to be quite high. But what if\nthe accounting \u201cfair value\u201d cannot be estimated with high reliability? What if\nthere is no market price? These questions now leads us to IFRS 13 Fair Value Measurement<\/em> \u2013 and it has the\npotential to turn the fragile standard IAS 41 into a quite explosive one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Very\nshortly here: IFRS 13 sees different levels of fair value measurement depending\non the nature of the information available: Level 1 measurement uses quoted\nprices in active markets for identical assets as an input and is a quite\nreliable version of measurement \u2013 so quite a good benchmark. Level 2 measurement\nis standing on a weaker basis and uses \u201cobservable\u201d information, either\ndirectly or indirectly, other than for identical assets. A typical case is here\nquoted prices for similar or comparable assets. But if all this is not\navailable, level 3 now turns away from a \u201cmarket\u201d (because there is none) and\nuses all other information which allows to \u2013 often by use of a model \u2013\ndetermine a value. Obviously level 3 is by far the weakest one and entails also\nsome subjective elements. This might (but not necessarily has to) be tolerable\nin certain situations where we need fair values in accounting, but it obviously\nopens a big door for management, perhaps even a gate, if this fair value\nmeasurement is directly linked to a core periodical performance driver of the\ncompany, the revenue generation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And here we are back at Tongaat Hulett\u2019s situation, which is not an uncommon one for companies growing agricultural or animal assets. In the annual report the company explains: \u201cGrowing crops, comprising standing cane, is measured at fair value which is determined using unobservable inputs and is categorised as Level 3 under the fair value hierarchy.\u201d and \u201cThe fair value of standing cane is determined by estimating the growth of the cane, the yield, sucrose content, selling prices (including specifics such as European Union exports), less costs to harvest and transport, over-the-weighbridge costs and costs into the market\u201d. The company also comments that it is valuing \u201croots at current replacement cost of planting and establishment, amortised over the period of their productive life\u201d (which is 6 to 12 years). And this all makes sense from a theoretical point of view. But what about the practical application, in particular the one related to the valuation of standing cane? To check the calculations provided by the company, we below re-performed the Tongaat Hulett analysis by taking into account the amount of land available for growing cane sugar, the cane yield, i.e the harvesting potential per hectare (information given by Tongaat Hulett in every annual report), and the price development for raw sugar (this is a market price). These variables seem to us to be the main variables for the fair value development of the relevant positions. Interestingly here, the sugar notations are in a deep downswing since 2011.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

We start with our analysis in year 2010 and we run through the numbers. We follow the valuation as stated by Tongaat Hulett , i.e we exclude the sugar price development for cane roots valuation to stay close to the replacement value, but we include the sugar price into the standing crane valuation because the latter is reasonably close to the sugar market.  We also excluded all exchange rate effects. And this leads us to the following analytically estimated \u201cfair value\u201d development of the biological assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Source: Tongaat ARs, Thomson Reuters; Comment: The adoption of the revised IAS 16 Property, Plant and Equipment<\/em> and IAS 41 Agriculture<\/em> in 2015\/16 has resulted in the case of Tongaat Hulett that cane roots being reclassified from growing crops to PP&E (property, plant and equipment) in the balance sheet, and root planting costs being capitalised to the cost of the roots. Ongoing, standing cane is still disclosed under current assets. All this does not change anything of our analysis. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In the\ngraph the actual accounting valuation of Tongaat Hulett\u2019s biological assets is contrasted\nto our valuation. What a big difference this is! Just as an explanation: The\nmain negative to our analytical path here is the sugar price development for\nthe standing canes. And we can see: Base on our assumptions it is impossible\nfor us to retrace what drives the company to the valuation disclosed in the\nannual reports. It is also not the case that we are particularly conservative\nin our calculations here. It is just a fair rebuilding of the valuation\napproach of Tongaat Hulett from our information point of view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is worth\nto remember here: it is all profit-&-loss-relevant what Tongaat Hulett\nprovided in its accounts! As we can see, our analysis indicates that over the\nyears there is an accumulated profit-&-loss-relevant difference of almost 3\nbn ZAR between our estimates and the company-stated ones. Not an insignificant\nnumber for a company with an annual stated pre-tax income of on average about 1\nto 1.5 bn ZAR. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This\npicture \u2013 again: here only based on subjective analytical insight and not\nconfirmed \u2013 is not a new one. We have seen a lot of companies in the past which\npresumably took the chance of making use of the weak IFRS 13 \/ IAS 41 accounting-hole\nto dress up their numbers. A quite serious example from Germany was the\nonce-listed, now insolvent company Asian Bamboo AG, which mainly produced\nbamboo wood and realised huge earnings until 2013 based on IAS 41 paper\nrevenues (of course not supported by cash flows). Once it became clear that\nthese expected price increases will not materialise the company suffered from\nmassive impairments and finally had to go bankrupt in 2015.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another famous example \u2013 this time not directly related to IAS 41 but rather to the fair value accounting and the associated P&L-relevant gains and losses of similar transactions\u2013 is Noble Group which have been the victim of short-seller research house Iceberg Research in 2015 who uncovered their accounting practice with regard to certain metals and minerals. As a matter of course, many of these gains later never realised. Today the company is technically insolvent and in the middle of a court-overseen restructuring process. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Source: Iceberg Research: Noble Group, a Repeat of Enron, Second Report: Fair Values and Operating Cash Flows, 2015. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Without\nstating the obvious, there are a lot of companies out there where we have some\nheadaches when we look at the numbers, even if they are far from being a\nbankruptcy candidate. In these cases it is simply a question of reliability.\nHow much can you trust the numbers if there is so much leeway and discretion\nfor management to recognise revenues?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For investors there are a couple of important points to consider when dealing with companies that have a material IAS 41 exposure:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  • By nature, the earnings generated via\nIAS 41 accounting are much less reliable than earnings that are the result of a\nfinished transaction. This is not a bad signal per se, it could also turn out\nto be better in the end. Even a super-honest CFO can only provide you with his\nbest guess on what might later turn out in a transaction. But the signal from\nIAS 41 accounting (paper profits) is much more blurred, and not as clear and\nconclusive as the one from a usual cashflow-backed revenue generation process.<\/li>
  • Be particularly wary if the\ncombination of IAS 41 and level 3 measurement of IFRS 13 is in place (you\nshould find information on this in the notes). This is a very dangerous\nsituation in terms of information quality of earnings. Take this high uncertainty\ninto account in your valuations!<\/li>
  • Always try to retrace the proceeding\nof companies applying IAS 41. You are not able to check every parameter? Does\nnot matter. Try to bring in your best guess. Are there any breaks that you do\nnot understand? Confront the management with it. And: Have a model ready which\nallows you to calculate some sensitivities. Are there some driving parameters\nwhere you have a strong opinion on (such as e.g. the sugar price in the Tongaat\nHulett case)? IAS 41 business models usually have a lagged cash generation\nprocess (cash inflows follow earnings with some periods time because cash only\nflows once products are sold). So, your parameter projection has an immediate\nimpact on the expected cash generation \u2013 and hence on the business valuation.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Caveat to this analysis: Again, this is just a\nsubjective analytical view based on partially imperfect information. Things\nmight be different in reality. We hold no economic interest in Tongaat Hulett.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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